In a recent analysis, the tourism intelligence platform DataGreat examined the potential impact of a prolonged geopolitical conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States on Turkey’s vital tourism sector, which ranks as the country’s third-largest export industry. Alper Tekin, the founder of DataGreat, utilized the company’s Crisis Impact Simulator to overlay these scenarios on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset, providing a comprehensive view of how such tensions could reshape Turkish tourism dynamics.
Turkey’s proximity to the potential conflict zone is a fundamental aspect of its exposure, with six of its top ten inbound tourism markets, including Russia, Germany, and the United Kingdom, located within approximately 3,000 kilometers of the Iran-Israel axis. Tourism plays a crucial role in the Turkish economy, contributing over 11 percent to the country’s GDP and providing around three million direct jobs, based on figures from the WTTC. DataGreat’s simulator does not predict outcomes but rather applies deterministic scenario rules to existing data, ensuring that all numerical claims are verifiable and accurate, a feature that Tekin refers to as “zero hallucinations.”
The platform explored three hypothetical scenarios. Scenario A considers a regional escalation leading to disruptions in air travel, heightened sanctions, or insurance-driven route changes. This scenario primarily affects Turkey through a decrease in European leisure travel demand, with travelers from Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands likely to postpone rather than cancel their trips. Business travel from the EU shows greater resilience compared to leisure travel in this scenario.
Scenario B, a potential Russian outbound shock, examines the effects of a 20 to 35 percent reduction in Russian tourists to Turkey over a year, influenced by increased sanctions, payment difficulties, and currency pressures on the ruble. This scenario particularly impacts the coastal regions of Antalya and Muğla and businesses heavily reliant on Russian charter flights. Scenario C focuses on the volatility of the Turkish lira compared to the US dollar, considering a risk-premium increase tied to tensions along the US-Iran axis. While this could temporarily boost dollar-denominated revenue as Turkey becomes a more affordable destination, it could also dampen domestic leisure spending as Turkish households adjust their budgets.
Alper Tekin emphasizes that the simulator’s findings are intended as a planning resource rather than a prediction tool. It allows destination management organizations and tourism operators to proactively assess potential scenarios before they unfold. Media outlets can access the complete simulator outputs, detailing vulnerabilities, mitigation strategies, and indicators to watch. These outputs are accompanied by insights from DataGreat’s Risk Radar module, which evaluates tourism risks across 42 countries weekly. DataGreat, operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş. and based in Edirne, Turkey, provides a suite of tools including a Persona Builder and Campaign Brief Generator, all founded on the WTTC dataset.